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Tuesday, November 13, 2012

The Republican Party needs to make changes - but it's not as daunting as some suggest

Don't forget this nugget: George W. Bush won at least 40 percent of the Latino vote twice. If a Republican presidential nominee can do that moving forward and bump up his support among black voters to about 12 percent to 15 percent, it would make an incredible difference.

How bad is it?

From the piece:

It certainly seems odd to declare a realignment when the result of the election is the maintenance of the status quo, including Republican control of the House. There is no hint of a seismic demography-driven shift away from the GOP in the 113th Congress. As for the White House, the important thing to remember is that Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney on November 6th. In a sense, this can be seen as a triumph of one party over the other, but an overly broad interpretation of the result will lead to overconfidence on the part of Democrats.

Take the black vote. As my colleague noted in an earlier post, the share of black voters has been rising for some time, but it jumped considerably as a result of Mr Obama's candidacy. Is this sustainable? Over at the Monkey Cage, a sceptical John Sides cites the work of political scientist Matt Barreto, who found that 79% of blacks are "very enthusiastic" about the Democratic Party...now. Only 47% believe they'll stay that way once Mr Obama leaves office.


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