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Monday, December 31, 2012

Global crystal ball: What's going to happen around the world in 2013?

Global crystal ball: What's going to happen around the world in 2013?

From the piece:

Even the most earth-shattering global events are difficult and sometimes impossible for the ostensibly most well-informed of governments and organizations to anticipate--indeed, they are difficult to anticipateas they are happening. As the political scientist Jay Ulfelder recently argued, by its very nature, international political forecasting will never be definitely solved by a Nate Silver-like numbers cruncher. Out in the real world, events gain an unpredictable momentum based on factors that no current statistical model can account for--which is another way of saying that political science can't perfectly comprehend the full spectrum of human nature. Such uncertainty is part of what makes foreign affairs so interesting in the first place. Yes, the latest Council on Foreign Relations Preventative Priorities Survey says that a war over Ngarno-Karbach isn't all that likely. But that doesn't mean that journalists won't be flocking to Baku and Yerevan at some point in 2013, pacing anxiously as the Azeri and Armenian militaries prepare for battle.

With that in mind, and with the utmost possible humility, here are six mostly vague and probably wrong predictions for the coming year. Whether they're vindicated or not, don't say we didn't warn you.

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