Hard Rock Park bonds in rare position
Alarming numbers that came out last week about Hard Rock Park’s bonds should be seen as cause for further analysis - not a definitive warning sign, a researcher with Moody’s Analytics said Monday.
Last week, Reuters reported that some of the park’s bonds were trading at distressed levels with a high risk of default.
While the report is accurate, the data pool from which those risk levels were drawn is not big enough to make firm conclusions, said Tony Smith, senior director in Moody’s capital market research group from Moody’s Analytics, which analyzes bonds’ market performance against their ratings.
Over the past nine years, only 148 of the 200,000-plus observations of daily bond prices by Moody’s Analytics have been in the same situation as Hard Rock Park: They have had bonds rated as CAA2 while trading at C levels. Of those, 43 percent defaulted within the year, Smith said.
“We would not view that as a strong, statistically significant signal,” Smith said. “We’d use this more as a pointer for investors to look more deeply into the questions around this company than as a pure signal of an expectation of problems.”
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