Early standings in the horse race

My latest column takes a look at the governor’s race through the lens of the first poll to include all 10 candidates.

Common sense would say that any poll for next year's governor's race taken right now – with many voters just now starting to forget the trauma inflicted by last month's city elections, right in the middle of the holidays, with three months before filing and six months before the primaries – would be awfully premature.

And yet, the first poll to include all 10 announced gubernatorial candidates is almost impossible not to chew on. Get your grain of salt, and let's proceed with a look at an Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion poll (PDF) posted earlier this month.

Republicans

The GOP race is compelling for its oversupply of brand-name candidates: two statewide office holders - Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and state Attorney General Henry McMaster – plus a sitting congressman, the Upstate's Gresham Barrett, and, finally, Jenny Sanford's choice, state Rep. Nikki Haley. Even lesser-known state Sen. Larry Grooms can claim some wind in his sails from recent endorsements by high-profile tea party activists.

The poll shows McMaster and Bauer tied in the lead with 22 percent each. This is unsurprising for McMaster, who can reasonably claim “frontrunner” status now that he has tied at the top of each of three polls taken so far. Without any major gaffes, McMaster seems sure to advance past the June 8 primary, though likely into a runoff with one of the other four.

This poll is remarkably good news for Bauer, who had struggled in two previous polls (here and here) that showed him far less competitive than McMaster against the Democrats in the race. A Public Policy Polling survey concluded that “Bauer is the best known of the candidates, but he is also the least popular and appears to be the Republican nominee who would give Democrats the best chance of taking the office back.” Still, Bauer's strong campaign work ethic is well-documented in previous elections, making him a very viable candidate – and the Insider Advantage poll had to have been good news.

On the contrary, the latest poll had to have been so disappointing to Barrett that the Congressman's campaign will likely write it off as anomaly. Barrett's 9 percent places him fourth in the race, behind Haley's 13 percent and only beating Grooms' 6 percent. In the previous two polls, it was Barrett that tied with McMaster despite never having run statewide before, and Barrett also boasts the largest war chest in the campaign ($1.3 million cash on hand in October), so he will prove a formidable candidate yet.

This poll was the first to include Haley and Grooms, two lesser-known candidates who are both playing to the Mark Sanford/Jim DeMint wing of the party. Haley, also a darling of the national conservative media, drew twice the support Grooms did, results that raise the possibility she might have a shot at the nomination if she could consolidate her split base.

Democrats

In contrast to the strong forces at play in the Republican race, the Democrats have a field of ideologically distinct but lesser-known candidates to choose from.

The only man among them to have won statewide office is S.C. Superintendent Jim Rex, who garnered support of 21 percent of his party. Given his name recognition, a Rex lead this far out is to be expected – but also an enviable position to start from.

Dwight Drake, lobbyist and former staffer to Govs. John West and Dick Riley, makes a surprisingly strong showing of 15 percent – especially since it's his first run for office. The previous two S.C. gubernatorial polls also showed Rex as frontrunner but omitted asking about Drake, making this poll the first measure of his candidacy. Party activists, however, will be unsurprised that the savvy politico is posing a strong threat to the superintendent.

A third-place showing with only 8 percent is likely less than state Sen. Vincent Sheheen was hoping for. Earlier this year, Sheheen could have been considered the most serious announced contender for the Democratic nomination, until the late announcements by Rex and Drake. Still, Sheheen has led the Democrats in early fundraising, and time campaigning around the state will inevitably boost his numbers.

Lowcountry attorney Mullins McLeod and state Sen. Robert Ford tied at 6 percent, and both face serious obstacles to the nomination. McLeod is a political newcomer campaigning as the party's liberal voice, spreading a progressive message many Democrats likely enjoy hearing but that will clearly have a hard time attracting independents and Republican crossovers the Democratic candidate will need to win. Ford has the opposite problem, supporting issues such as private-school vouchers that usually unify Democrats – in opposition. That, and the enigmatic senator has shown a tendency to skip the various candidates' forums held thus far.

Again, common sense should prevail here. The poll shows 28 percent of Republicans and 44 percent of Democrats undecided, making leads in the low 20s look little like laurels to rest upon, and more like goals for the lesser-known candidates to overtake.

Robert Morris is a senior editorial writer for The Sun News. Reach him at (843) 626-0294 or rmorris@thesunnews.com, or on the Web at http://thesunnews.typepad.com/opinionblog.

Republicans

The GOP race is compelling for its oversupply of brand-name candidates: two statewide office holders - Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and state Attorney General Henry McMaster – plus a sitting congressman, the Upstate's Gresham Barrett, and, finally, Jenny Sanford's choice, state Rep. Nikki Haley. Even lesser-known state Sen. Larry Grooms can claim some wind in his sails from recent endorsements by high-profile tea party activists.

The poll shows McMaster and Bauer tied in the lead with 22 percent each. This is unsurprising for McMaster, who can reasonably claim “frontrunner” status now that he has tied at the top of each of three polls taken so far. Without any major gaffes, McMaster seems sure to advance past the June 8 primary, though likely into a runoff with one of the other four.

This poll is remarkably good news for Bauer, who had struggled in two previous polls (here and here) that showed him far less competitive than McMaster against the Democrats in the race. A Public Policy Polling survey concluded that “Bauer is the best known of the candidates, but he is also the least popular and appears to be the Republican nominee who would give Democrats the best chance of taking the office back.” Still, Bauer's strong campaign work ethic is well-documented in previous elections, making him a very viable candidate – and the Insider Advantage poll had to have been good news.

On the contrary, the latest poll had to have been so disappointing to Barrett that the Congressman's campaign will likely write it off as anomaly. Barrett's 9 percent places him fourth in the race, behind Haley's 13 percent and only beating Grooms' 6 percent. In the previous two polls, it was Barrett that tied with McMaster despite never having run statewide before, and Barrett also boasts the largest war chest in the campaign ($1.3 million cash on hand in October), so he will prove a formidable candidate yet.

This poll was the first to include Haley and Grooms, two lesser-known candidates who are both playing to the Mark Sanford/Jim DeMint wing of the party. Haley, also a darling of the national conservative media, drew twice the support Grooms did, results that raise the possibility she might have a shot at the nomination if she could consolidate her split base.

Democrats

In contrast to the strong forces at play in the Republican race, the Democrats have a field of ideologically distinct but lesser-known candidates to choose from.

The only man among them to have won statewide office is S.C. Superintendent Jim Rex, who garnered support of 21 percent of his party. Given his name recognition, a Rex lead this far out is to be expected – but also an enviable position to start from.

Dwight Drake, lobbyist and former staffer to Govs. John West and Dick Riley, makes a surprisingly strong showing of 15 percent – especially since it's his first run for office. The previous two S.C. gubernatorial polls also showed Rex as frontrunner but omitted asking about Drake, making this poll the first measure of his candidacy. Party activists, however, will be unsurprised that the savvy politico is posing a strong threat to the superintendent.

A third-place showing with only 8 percent is likely less than state Sen. Vincent Sheheen was hoping for. Earlier this year, Sheheen could have been considered the most serious announced contender for the Democratic nomination, until the late announcements by Rex and Drake. Still, Sheheen has led the Democrats in early fundraising, and time campaigning around the state will inevitably boost his numbers.

Lowcountry attorney Mullins McLeod and state Sen. Robert Ford tied at 6 percent, and both face serious obstacles to the nomination. McLeod is a political newcomer campaigning as the party's liberal voice, spreading a progressive message many Democrats likely enjoy hearing but that will clearly have a hard time attracting independents and Republican crossovers the Democratic candidate will need to win. Ford has the opposite problem, supporting issues such as private-school vouchers that usually unify Democrats – in opposition. That, and the enigmatic senator has shown a tendency to skip the various candidates' forums held thus far.

Again, common sense should prevail here. The poll shows 28 percent of Republicans and 44 percent of Democrats undecided, making leads in the low 20s look little like laurels to rest upon, and more like goals for the lesser-known candidates to overtake.

Robert Morris is a senior editorial writer for The Sun News. Reach him at (843) 626-0294 or rmorris@thesunnews.com, or on the Web at http://thesunnews.typepad.com/opinionblog.