Thursday’s editorial contemplates the fact that, in a disheartening
illustration of how
Democrats have made much hay this
week over a report released Monday that says their health-reform legislation
won't do much to increase health insurance premiums for the vast majority of
Americans, contrary to the frightening claims made all year by Republicans.
But the report is not actually such
great news. Why? Because the Democrats are right; the premiums won't change
much for most workers: They're going to keep going up.
The Congressional Budget Office,
the nonpartisan scorekeeper entrusted with figuring out how much various acts
of Congress will cost, analyzed all the massive bill's various moving parts,
extrapolated them out to 2016 after most of the bill's mechanisms have gotten
cranked up, and found the answer was zero. Not exactly zero, but the economists
said health-insurance premiums for people who get coverage through their
employers (about 60 percent of Americans) will likely be within a percentage
point or two of what they are likely to be now.
Specifically, the report states
that “the average premium per policy in the small group market [50 or fewer
employees] would be in the vicinity of $7,800 for single policies and $19,200
for family policies under the proposal, compared with about $7,800 and $19,300
under current law. In the large group market, average premiums would be roughly
$7,300 for single policies and $20,100 for family policies under the proposal,
compared with about $7,400 and $20,300 under current law.”
Here's the kicker. According to the
Kaiser Family Foundation, which tracks health-care spending nationwide, the
average premium per policy in 2009 under employer-based plans was $4,824 for
single workers and $13,375 for families. (In 2000, the same plans cost $2,471
for singles and $6,438 for families.) Premium costs increase at a breakneck
pace of 5 percent or more each year, and while the Senate health bill may not
make the situation worse, the CBO report doesn't indicate it will make it much
better.
In the end, the CBO and other analyses
show the Senate health bill will help many people. The average premiums for the
10 percent or so of Americans who buy insurance on the individual markets will
go up, but it's because the government will be giving many of them vouchers to
buy more comprehensive plans. The cost might go up, but those workers'
out-of-pocket costs will go down. Meanwhile, a large portion of the 15 percent
of Americans without insurance will suddenly have access to it. And the
remaining Americans who are covered by Medicare, Medicaid or other government
plans will still have theirs as well.
Those are good things, but Congress
could have done better. U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham supported a bipartisan path to
universal coverage through increased private-plan competition that would have
both decreased the federal deficit and gone into effect sooner than the
Democrats' plan, but it has languished because it makes the even-more radical
overhaul of separating health insurance from employment. Both parties are to
blame for ignoring it, Democrats for staying trapped in an entitlement
mentality and Republicans for choosing cheap shots and talking points instead
of contributing to the reform effort.
The CBO report just underscores the
result of politics as usual. For 60 percent of Americans, the cost curve isn't
going to bend after all.
Change in average premiums
|
Type of policy |
Single |
Family |
|
2009 |
$4,284 |
$13,375 |
|
2016 (current law)* |
$7,400 |
$20,300 |
|
2016 (Senate bill)* |
$7,300 |
$20,100 |
Sources: Kaiser Family Foundation,
CBO
*Figures are for large-group employers.
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