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April 27, 2010

I THINK THE ‘T’ WORD DID IT

By Richard L. Wolfe 

“Of governments, that of the mob is the most sanguinary, that of soldiers the most expensive, and that of civilians the most vexatious.”

CHARLES CALEB COLTON (1780-1832) English poet, essayist

Unless you have been living under a rock in a cave on a deserted island, you are aware of the Tea Party Movement. The movements seem to come out of nowhere to protest the TARP bill, the stimulus bill and most recently, the impending higher taxes on April 15th. The movement has energized the right, angered the left, and bewildered the media. The lawmakers on Capitol Hill seemed to be caught completely flat-footed by this unusual turn of events. While the participants have been consistent in there reasons for protesting, the media, blogs, politicians, and the pundits have all tried to put their spin on it.

The T-E-A is a “backronym” for taxed enough already. On January 19, 2009, Graham Makohoniuk, a part-time trader and a member of Ticker Forum, posted a casual invitation on the market-ticker.org forums to "Mail a tea bag to Congress and to the Senate.” The message that the protesters are trying to deliver is a simple and common sense one. The government is too big, too expensive, too intrusive, too out of touch, and is not in line with the Constitution and the vision of the founding fathers. In the case of the health care reform law, it is creating rights that have never existed and trying to expand the Commerce Clause to create commerce instead of regulating it.

I think the left is justified in being upset over this unexpected turn of events. After all, they had just successful, with the media’s help, managed to trick the nation into voting for a man who ran as a moderate to the nation’s highest office. Shortly after being sworn in, the President ripped off that moderate suit and revealed his true identity as Super Liberal Man, complete with green tights and a red cape. To make matters worse, he handed over his highest priority-Health Care Reform-to Ultra Liberals Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. This resulted in pouring gas on the Tea Party’s fire. What followed were angry and contentious Town Hall meetings, nationwide protests, Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey, and the election of Republican Scott Brown to fill Ted Kennedy’s old Senate seat in Massachusetts. Even after all that, the President and his party ignored the public’s will and rammed through the unpopular Health Care Reform bill using bribes and parliamentary maneuvers.

Still, the left had a point. Why the seemingly sudden outrage over deficits and the national debt? Lord knows the Republicans and George Bush had blown a surplus and spent like “drunken sailors” during the eight years prior to Obama taking office. I think that it was the frequent use of the ‘T’ word as in trillions that have caused the average citizens to be fearful and nervous about their future and the futures of their children and grandchildren. When Bush left office in 2008, he left behind a 455 billion dollar deficit. In Obama’s first year in office, he ran up a 1.4 trillion dollar deficit. In 2010 the deficit is projected to be 1.34 trillion dollars. In addition, the national debt is closing in on 13 trillion dollars this year. To make matters worse, this doesn’t even factor in the baby boomers retirement, the added costs of Health Care Reform, or Cap and Trade costs. The 2010 Budget proposed by President Barack Obama projects significant debt increases, both in terms of dollars and relative to GDP. The debt is projected to nearly double to $20 trillion by 2015, but is expected to increase to nearly 100% of GDP by 2020 and remain at that level thereafter. These estimates assume real GDP growth (after inflation) ranging from 2.6% to 4.6% annually from 2010 through 2019, which exceeds Blue Chip consensus estimates.

I don’t know anyone who will live long enough to count to a trillion, let alone live long enough to pay off such a lofty sum. I think many of us were spooked when the deficit was in the hundreds of billions and now the government is talking about trillions in the same flippant manner. We may not be master mathematicians, but we know who is going to get stuck with the bill-and if billions is bad then trillions will be a disaster.

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