Silver Elephant straw poll surprises (updated)

I just received a copy of the full results from the straw poll at this weekend's Silver Elephant banquet held by the S.C. Republican Party. Here are their picks among their candidatdes:

Governor

• Barrett - 37
• McMaster - 34
• Haley - 19
• Bauer - 10

Lt. Governor

• Ard - 51
• Connor - 38
• Richter - 7
• Kitzman - 4

Attorney General

• Wilson - 48
• Lord - 41
• Bolchoz - 11

Treasurer

• Chellis - 61
• Loftis - 39

Comptroller General

• Eckstrom - 65
• Meilinger - 35

Superintendent of Education

• Zais - 54
• Payne - 23
• Nelson - 12
• Burgess - 5
• Moffly - 5
• Price - 1

The Charleston Post and Courier reported that more than 700 people attended and that admission was $100 per seat, so this is a pretty good picture of where the party's elite stands on these races. What the rank-and-file voter will do June 8 may prove a different story, but I think these results will still largely prove instructive.

In the governor's race, the McMaster team has got to be disappointed that Barrett edged them out. McMaster, after all, is a former state party chairman, so this should have been his crowd. (Thad Viers, who has been supportive of Haley, has accused the Barrett campaign of loading the deck by "buying" 64 seats there, though I've not seen that validated anywhere, or any figures for how many seats the other campaigns had.) Obviously, this result strongly suggests a Barrett-McMaster runoff, and I don't know that either campaign could convince me that the runoff is a lock for them yet. 

I'd also say, at this point, that it's starting to look like the only way for Haley to get in the runoff is through some meltdown of Barrett or McMaster (something never out of the question in SC politics) - though if that does happen, I'd say she's got as strong a chance in the runoff as anyone. Finally, I'm surprised Bauer's numbers were so low - but I have to assume the GOP leadership is less tolerant of Bauer's idiosyncratic style than the general electorate will be. 

The Lt. Governor results are intriguing all the way around. You'd expect Ard to beat Connor in front of the party elite - Connor will say he's got a more grassroots campaign - but I'm surprised Richter is not much of a threat. Likewise, I didn't realize the attorney general's race was a two-way contest, either; I thought Bolchoz was more of a factor. That Alan Wilson gets the edge over Lord may be attributable to Wilson's dad, Congressman "You Lie" Joe, but both Wilson and Lord undeniably still have their work cut out.

Finally, I'm probably most surprised to see Newberry College president Mick Zais all but walk away with the GOP nomination in the superintendent's race. Nelson, a Furman professor, started his run as a gubernatorial candidate, and presents pretty well, so my guess would have put him near the top. Payne is the choice of the Sanford crowd, but perhaps their influence truly has waned to the roughly 20 percent of the party that she and Haley both received. At any rate, Zais' 54 percent is the strongest showing in any of these four non-incumbent races, and (especially since I think this is his first run for office) it would be truly remarkable if he is able to escape a six-way race without a runoff.

UPDATE: I just received the following note from B.J. Boling, spokesman for the Barrett campaign: 

Just read your post regarding the straw poll at the Silver Elephant. Wanted to let you know that our campaign didn’t buy a single table at the Silver Elephant. Heck, our candidate wasn’t even there. He had a family commitment in Westminster. He was planning to fly in to Columbia but got grounded due to weather. 

UPDATE 2: Thad Viers didn't care for the way I characterized his comment about the Barrett campaign. His original comment on Twitter and Facebook was, "does anyone have details about the SCGOP gov's straw poll? i had heard that Barrett's campaign bought 8 tables= 64 votes," and here's his email to me:

I never accused him of buying tables for votes just merely asked the question.  BJ Boling emailed me that Barrett in fact did not buy any tables.  However, 2 folks from that has connections to the state party said he did.  Look on my facebook thread.  Someone is not telling the whole story and I want to find out who.  

The bottom line is that a straw poll based on votes purchased by ANY candidate is not a straw poll at all.  I would like all the govenor's candidates to state if they did or did not purchase a table.

Viers' Facebook page does have a lively little discussion of this, for anyone interested.

Governor

• Barrett - 37
• McMaster - 34
• Haley - 19
• Bauer - 10

Lt. Governor

• Ard - 51
• Connor - 38
• Richter - 7
• Kitzman - 4

Attorney General

• Wilson - 48
• Lord - 41
• Bolchoz - 11

Treasurer

• Chellis - 61
• Loftis - 39

Comptroller General

• Eckstrom - 65
• Meilinger - 35

Superintendent of Education

• Zais - 54
• Payne - 23
• Nelson - 12
• Burgess - 5
• Moffly - 5
• Price - 1

The Charleston Post and Courier reported that more than 700 people attended and that admission was $100 per seat, so this is a pretty good picture of where the party's elite stands on these races. What the rank-and-file voter will do June 8 may prove a different story, but I think these results will still largely prove instructive.

In the governor's race, the McMaster team has got to be disappointed that Barrett edged them out. McMaster, after all, is a former state party chairman, so this should have been his crowd. (Thad Viers, who has been supportive of Haley, has accused the Barrett campaign of loading the deck by "buying" 64 seats there, though I've not seen that validated anywhere, or any figures for how many seats the other campaigns had.) Obviously, this result strongly suggests a Barrett-McMaster runoff, and I don't know that either campaign could convince me that the runoff is a lock for them yet. 

I'd also say, at this point, that it's starting to look like the only way for Haley to get in the runoff is through some meltdown of Barrett or McMaster (something never out of the question in SC politics) - though if that does happen, I'd say she's got as strong a chance in the runoff as anyone. Finally, I'm surprised Bauer's numbers were so low - but I have to assume the GOP leadership is less tolerant of Bauer's idiosyncratic style than the general electorate will be. 

The Lt. Governor results are intriguing all the way around. You'd expect Ard to beat Connor in front of the party elite - Connor will say he's got a more grassroots campaign - but I'm surprised Richter is not much of a threat. Likewise, I didn't realize the attorney general's race was a two-way contest, either; I thought Bolchoz was more of a factor. That Alan Wilson gets the edge over Lord may be attributable to Wilson's dad, Congressman "You Lie" Joe, but both Wilson and Lord undeniably still have their work cut out.

Finally, I'm probably most surprised to see Newberry College president Mick Zais all but walk away with the GOP nomination in the superintendent's race. Nelson, a Furman professor, started his run as a gubernatorial candidate, and presents pretty well, so my guess would have put him near the top. Payne is the choice of the Sanford crowd, but perhaps their influence truly has waned to the roughly 20 percent of the party that she and Haley both received. At any rate, Zais' 54 percent is the strongest showing in any of these four non-incumbent races, and (especially since I think this is his first run for office) it would be truly remarkable if he is able to escape a six-way race without a runoff.

UPDATE: I just received the following note from B.J. Boling, spokesman for the Barrett campaign: 

Just read your post regarding the straw poll at the Silver Elephant. Wanted to let you know that our campaign didn’t buy a single table at the Silver Elephant. Heck, our candidate wasn’t even there. He had a family commitment in Westminster. He was planning to fly in to Columbia but got grounded due to weather. 

UPDATE 2: Thad Viers didn't care for the way I characterized his comment about the Barrett campaign. His original comment on Twitter and Facebook was, "does anyone have details about the SCGOP gov's straw poll? i had heard that Barrett's campaign bought 8 tables= 64 votes," and here's his email to me:

I never accused him of buying tables for votes just merely asked the question.  BJ Boling emailed me that Barrett in fact did not buy any tables.  However, 2 folks from that has connections to the state party said he did.  Look on my facebook thread.  Someone is not telling the whole story and I want to find out who.  

The bottom line is that a straw poll based on votes purchased by ANY candidate is not a straw poll at all.  I would like all the govenor's candidates to state if they did or did not purchase a table.

Viers' Facebook page does have a lively little discussion of this, for anyone interested.