For those of you who saw this morning's paper, there's a breakdown of what every area team in Class A-AAA needs to do Friday night to make it to the playoffs, for those squads that are still eligible.
What we didn't break down entirely was the Class AAAA schools, Carolina Forest and Conway. Those two schools still have two weeks of regular season games left, starting with the Panthers' game tonight at West Florence.
Without wins today and against Conway, the Panthers simply won't have the points necessarily to grab one of the final playoff spots.
Per Class AAAA regulations, the top three teams in each region in the state's largest class make the playoffs, with the exception of one seven-team region that earns four spots. That qualifies 25 teams, with another seven getting "at-large" teams. The top-16 teams of those 32 in terms of enrollment are then placed in the Class AAAA, Division-I bracket (aka: "Big Class".) The others are put in Class AAAA, Division II.
Getting those 32 teams, though, can become cumbersome. Courtesy of a point system, the seven "at-large" teams are chosen.
This brings us back to Carolina Forest.
The Panthers (6-3 overall and 1-2 in Region VI-AAAA), have more wins than they've had in recent years, but five of the team's wins aren't helping coach Drew Hummel's team when it comes to boosting the overall point total:
* Vs. Socastee -- Aug. 20 -- CF won 33-7, but the Braves are just 3-6 heading into their final regular-season game of the year;
* At St. James -- Sept. 3 -- CF won 21-0 against a team that's 2-7 with one regular-season game remaining;
* Vs. Battery Creek -- Sept. 10 -- This Class AAA opponent has yet to win a game in 2010;
* At Kingstree -- Sept. 17 -- This Class AA opponent has also yet to win a game this season;
* At North Myrtle Beach -- Sept. 24 -- Another winless team on the slate.
So yes, the Panthers got the wins, but they weren't exactly quality wins.
Carolina Forest doesn't have much choice but to play teams in lower classifications when it comes to non-region play. That's why Class AAAA teams are allowed to mark off two games each season -- essentially counting nine games worth of points.
But after the Panthers mark off two teams -- presumably Kingstree and either North Myrtle Beach or Battery Creek -- Carolina Forest's point total is still likely going to be nearly 5-7 points shy of what it would need to be for an at-large bid because points against teams with losing records in lower classes add up only minimally.
It really is a question of what the Panthers needed more this year, though. Carolina Forest hasn't had a winning season since moving to Class AAAA. Running back Mark Timmons may have said it best earlier this season when he said he was sick of fans and the media simply waiting for this team to collapse year after year.
Even if it loses its last two games of the regular season, few will likely say that this year. If nothing else, this team did exactly what it needed to: Get a handful of wins under its belt.
Confidence can be tricky to build; it's nearly impossible when you're losing seven or eight games every year. That won't happen this season; in fact, there's no way the Panthers can finish with a losing record.
Maybe the six (plus) wins this season will allow this team to understand it can compete. And maybe a few more kids are in camp next August. And maybe that was the goal all along -- to build for the future, not necessarily this season.
Sure, the Panthers would love a spot in the postseason.
Unless they win tonight and next week, though, the numbers almost certainly won't add up to a playoff berth.
